Journal

The luxury real estate market in 2026

By Sofia Renna

6 min read

Coastal estate seen from the water

"Fewer transactions, higher discretion — what's actually shifting at the top of the market this year, and what it means for buyers and sellers of exceptional homes."

The top end of the market doesn’t move the way headlines suggest it does. While broader housing data cools or spikes with interest rates, prestige real estate has quietly followed its own rhythm — one dictated less by financing conditions and more by scarcity, discretion, and timing.

Over the past twelve months, we’ve watched a familiar pattern deepen: fewer properties changing hands, but longer, more considered decisions behind each one. Buyers at this level aren’t reacting to the market. They’re waiting for the right property to appear, and moving decisively once it does.

Scarcity is doing more work than price

Ask what a house is worth and you’ll get a number. Ask what it would take to find another like it and the conversation changes entirely. In the segments we work in supply is not slow, it is finite. There are only so many homes with a private beach, a protected view, or a title that hasn’t changed hands in three generations.

That finiteness is what holds value when the wider market wobbles. Sellers who understand it are in no hurry. Buyers who understand it stop asking whether they’re paying a premium and start asking whether the opportunity will exist again.

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